Raviole Labs
Raviole Labs

Cross-venue divergence: the alpha that nobody runs manually

Three venues price the same event differently. The disagreement is the signal. Here's how PredMCP makes it tractable for an agent.

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When you ask “is BTC going up?”, you can ask three different markets and get three different answers. Each market has its own crowd, its own incentive structure, its own time horizon. The disagreement between them is information. That’s the entire premise of PredMCP.

Three crowds, one asset

Hyperliquid perps is where leveraged crypto traders express short-term directional bets. The signal is funding rate: positive funding means longs are paying shorts, which means more long demand than short, which means the leveraged crowd is positioned bullish. Open interest tells you how much conviction is behind it.

Polymarket is where sophisticated bettors price discrete events. Whether that’s “BTC above $90k by July” or “Iran-US deal by May 31,” the YES price is a direct probability quote. Whales here often have nothing to do with the perp crowd. They’re hedge funds, researchers, and election obsessives.

HIP-4 is Hyperliquid’s native prediction market. Small in volume, mostly short-term price markets like “BTC > $81,041 by 6am tomorrow.” On its own, not that interesting. Compared to what the perp crowd is doing on the same exchange, it’s a clean second opinion from a different head of the same body.

Why disagreement is the signal

If all three say BTC is going up, you have a consensus read. Useful, but priced.

If two say up and one says down, you have a disagreement. One of them is wrong, and the others have to update. Which side is right is a directional bet. That a disagreement exists at this moment is information you can act on regardless of direction: you can hedge, you can wait for the resolution, or you can study the disagreement and learn something about the market structure.

The hard part is finding the disagreement in real time, across hundreds of Polymarket markets, dozens of HL perps, and a constantly shifting HIP-4 board.

A real example

Below is what get_signals('BTC') returned to a Claude session this week:

HL perps:  BTC $79,740 | funding +0.0000125 | OI 31,100 BTC   (slightly bullish)
HIP-4:     BTC > $81,041 by 6am  →  YES 12%                  (very bearish)
Signal:    DIVERGENCE — perps slightly bullish, prediction market very bearish

The perp crowd is mildly long. The HIP-4 crowd is calling that level a long shot. Same exchange, same asset, same week, two different positions. The most likely read is that the prediction market is taking the under because the time horizon is six hours, and the perp positioning is for a longer view. But that’s already a useful frame: the perp tape isn’t telling you BTC clears $81k by tomorrow, just that traders are willing to pay carry to hold a long.

What we cover and what we don’t

We’re explicit about what crosses cleanly and what doesn’t:

  • Perp funding vs HIP-4 crosses cleanly on the major coins. Same exchange, same audience, different instruments. The cleanest signal in the stack.
  • Perp funding vs Polymarket crosses on assets and macro topics where Polymarket has depth (BTC, ETH, occasionally SOL, plus macro topics that touch crypto). For long-tail coins, Polymarket has nothing.
  • HIP-4 vs Polymarket direct arbitrage is technically possible but rare in practice. HIP-4 has few markets that overlap with a Polymarket equivalent. get_hip4_vs_pm_arb exists, but most days it returns zero. We don’t pitch this as a daily use case.

What we don’t do:

  • No HIP-4 order book depth. get_orderbook is Polymarket only.
  • No HIP-4 price history. Spot reads only.
  • No trading. PredMCP is read-only, by design.

How to run it

predmcp.com/signup gives you a free API key. Drop it into your Claude Desktop, Cursor, or Windsurf config:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "predmcp": {
      "url": "https://predmcp.com/mcp",
      "headers": { "x-api-key": "YOUR_KEY" }
    }
  }
}

Then ask your agent something like “any cross-venue divergences on the top 10 HL perps right now?”. The agent calls get_pm_hl_divergences, you get the disagreements, and you decide what to do with them.

The point isn’t that the tool tells you what to trade. The point is that the disagreement was always there, you just couldn’t see it without a tool that crosses three venues in a single read.